[agency Review] one week's coal trend in the coal mining industry: during the replenishment period, downstream stocks gradually pick up and demand is expected to improve during the heating season.

This week's point of view: thermal coal: on the supply side, coal prices at Kengkou continue to decline, and the purchasing mood of downstream users is not high. Under the influence of policy uncertainty and the epidemic, some coal mines with guaranteed supply tasks said that the power plant had defaulted, procurement decreased, platform procurement also slowed down, and traders suspended procurement. In terms of demand, the association of power plant leaders and coal supply and transportation are active, superimposed measures to limit power production by off-peak production, and a series of factors such as the decline in civil power demand in the south. As of November 4, the storage of coal in power plants under national regulation has reached 114 million tons, with an available life of 20 days. With the new round of strong cold air about to leave, some power plants and cement plants began to inquire and purchase, the release of new pallets in the market has increased, with the increase in inquiries, more attention will be paid to policy and weather factors in the later stage. Overall, with the strong implementation of policies such as increasing production and ensuring supply and price restrictions, the country's daily coal output has reached 11.53 million tons, an increase of 800000 tons over the beginning of October. However, the transport capacity is the demand for guaranteed supply, and the supply of coal in the market is still relatively small. with the new round of strong cold air about to leave, the demand for coal is expected to improve, some power plants and cement plants begin to inquire and purchase, and the new goods increase in the market has increased. pay more attention to policy and weather conditions in the later stage. Coking coal: on the supply side, the supply of coal mines in the main producing areas continues to recover, basically reaching the pre-July 1 supply level. From last week, some ports began to gradually clear the customs. On the whole, the supply side of coking coal recovers quickly. On the demand side, the start-up of steel mills fell, leading to the weakening of the coke market, superimposed coking coal market is still expected to reduce prices, downstream coke enterprises more control procurement rhythm, market demand is weak. Overall, the coking coal supply side recovers quickly, the downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal price will be weak and stable. Coke: on the supply side, coke operates weakly and stably after the first round of price reduction, local heating season and environmental protection production restrictions, coke enterprises start to limit production to a certain extent, but considering the pressure of supply in autumn and winter, some coke enterprises have loosened their production restrictions. in addition, the shipment situation is still not ideal, and the inventory in the factory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace in steel mills continues to decline, and due to the influence of environmental protection, weather and Winter Olympic Games, the production restriction of steel mills in some areas has been further strengthened, and the rigid demand for coke has continued to be under pressure. Overall, the short-term coke supply continues to contract, the rigid demand continues to be under pressure, the overall coke supply and demand pattern is in a weak state of supply and demand, and the short-term coke price may be stable.

one. Thermal coal: thermal coal prices in domestic ports are running smoothly this week. On November 5, the latest transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port was 942 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday; in terms of producing price, the plate price of 5500 trucks in the southern suburbs of Datong, Shanxi Province on November 5 was 1080 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton from last Friday; on November 5, Qinhuangdao Port inventory was 5.26 million tons, up 540000 tons from last Friday. In terms of demand, the association of power plant leaders and coal supply and transportation are active, superimposed measures to limit power production by off-peak production, and a series of factors such as the decline in civil power demand in the south. As of November 4, the storage of coal in power plants under national regulation has reached 114 million tons, with an available life of 20 days. With the new round of strong cold air about to leave, some power plants and cement plants began to inquire and purchase, the release of new pallets in the market has increased, with the increase in inquiries, more attention will be paid to policy and weather factors in the later stage. In terms of inventory, 5.26 million tons were stored in Qinhuangdao Port on November 5, up 540000 tons from last Friday.

On the supply side, coal prices in Kengkou continue to decline, and the purchasing mood of downstream users is not high. Under the influence of policy uncertainty and the epidemic, some coal mines with guaranteed supply tasks said that the power plant had defaulted, procurement decreased, platform procurement also slowed down, and traders suspended procurement. In terms of imports, as of November 5, the price of Australian coal Q5500 in Guangzhou Port increased by 1575 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton from last Friday, while the price of Indonesian coal Q5500 storage in Guangzhou Port increased by 1575 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton from last Friday. Overall, on the supply side, coal prices in Kengkou continue to decline, and the purchasing mood of downstream users is not high. Under the influence of policy uncertainty and the epidemic, some coal mines with guaranteed supply tasks said that the power plant had defaulted, procurement decreased, platform procurement also slowed down, and traders suspended procurement. In terms of demand, the association of power plant leaders and coal supply and transportation are active, superimposed measures to limit power production by off-peak production, and a series of factors such as the decline in civil power demand in the south. As of November 4, the storage of coal in power plants under national regulation has reached 114 million tons, with an available life of 20 days. With the new round of strong cold air about to leave, some power plants and cement plants began to inquire and purchase, the release of new pallets in the market has increased, with the increase in inquiries, more attention will be paid to policy and weather factors in the later stage. Overall, with the strong implementation of policies such as increasing production and ensuring supply and price restrictions, the country's daily coal output has reached 11.53 million tons, an increase of 800000 tons over the beginning of October.

However, the transport capacity is the demand for guaranteed supply, and the supply of coal in the market is still relatively small. with the new round of strong cold air about to leave, the demand for coal is expected to improve, some power plants and cement plants begin to inquire and purchase, and the new goods increase in the market has increased. pay more attention to policy and weather conditions in the later stage.

two. Coking coal: the price of coking coal in Jingtang Port this week is 4050 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. The coking coal market is weak this week.

On the demand side, the comprehensive operating rate of the coking plant this week was 65.48%, up 0.47% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, in terms of absolute volume, coking coal stocks in 100 sample coking plants this week totaled 6.858 million tons, down 54300 tons from last Friday; in terms of relative volume, the average available life of coking coal inventory in coking plants is 16.49 days, down 0.25 days from last Friday. On the supply side, the supply of coal mines in the main producing areas continued to recover, basically reaching the pre-July 1 supply level. From last week, some ports began to gradually clear the customs of Australian coal. On the whole, the supply side of coking coal recovers quickly. Overall, on the supply side, the supply of coal mines in the main producing areas continues to recover, basically reaching the pre-July 1 supply level. From last week, some ports began to gradually clear the customs of Australian coal. On the whole, the supply side of coking coal recovers quickly. On the demand side, the start-up of steel mills fell, leading to the weakening of the coke market, superimposed coking coal market is still expected to reduce prices, downstream coke enterprises more control procurement rhythm, market demand is weak. Overall, the coking coal supply side recovers quickly, the downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal price will be weak and stable.

three. Coke: the price of primary coke in Tianjin Port this week is 4080 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last Friday; the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is 3960 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last Friday. The coke market is weak this week. On the demand side, the national blast furnace operating rate was 48.48%, down 3.59% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, coke stocks in 110 domestic sample steel mills totaled 4.0588 million tons this week, down 78600 tons from last Friday. Coke stocks in 100 independent domestic coking plants totaled 503800 tons, up 85300 tons from last Friday. Port inventories totaled 1.208 million tons, down 62000 tons from last Friday. On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the coking plant this week was 65.48%, up 0.47% from last Friday. Generally speaking, on the supply side, coke is in weak and stable operation after the first round of price reduction, local heating season and environmental protection production restrictions, coke enterprises start to limit production to a certain extent, but considering the pressure of ensuring supply in autumn and winter, some coke enterprises have loosened their production restrictions. in addition, the shipment situation is still not ideal, and the inventory in the factory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace in steel mills continues to decline, and due to the influence of environmental protection, weather and Winter Olympic Games, the production restriction of steel mills in some areas has been further strengthened, and the rigid demand for coke has continued to be under pressure. Overall, the short-term coke supply continues to contract, the rigid demand continues to be under pressure, the overall coke supply and demand pattern is in a weak state of supply and demand, and the short-term coke price may be stable.

Risk hints: a sharp decline in macro-economy, a sharp drop in coal prices, less-than-expected production restrictions on coke, policy-oriented regulation and control of coal prices, massive release of new production capacity, tightening of imported coal policies, and deregulation of coal control tickets in Yulin area.